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Compare that to the standard deviation in year-over-year change in life expectancy, which is nearly three months. Let me temper the panic by saying that the bias is relatively small and affects only variances but not means, which is why it snuck through all our testing and application analyses. If you take Obama-Romney as a starting point and go from there, everything looks different. Her votes were just not in the right places. Lake et al. The other thing that strikes me is how little we hear about this nowadays. base their conclusion that the hot hand phenomenon is illusory squarely upon a battery of significance tests, having conducted no power analysis whatsoever. A bunch of the 170 are still in the queue. 2 months of life. Posted by Andrew on 18 December 2016, 12:16 am. Yet despite sensationalist headlines, human lifespan has actually risen globally and nationally for decades if not centuries with no signs of a reversal. Or when Lancet publishes with a straight face an unregularized regression with 50 data points and 39 predictors. He thus contributed both to the field of statistics and to the broader human understanding of the world. S. A statistical question has been bugging me lately. Almost. I did not know Steve Fienberg well, but I met him several times and encountered his work on various occasions, which makes sense considering his research area was statistical modeling as applied to social science. Have friends thinking about a home standby generator. 10 changed the NUTS algorithm from using slice sampling along a Hamiltonian trajectory to a new algorithm that uses categorical sampling of points along the trajectory proportional to the density (plus biases to the second half of the chain, which is a subtle aspect of the original NUTS algorithm). The decrease in the middle of the day is due in part to photovoltaic (PV) generation, which has been increasing yearly and is expected to continue to increase in the future: when the sun is out, the PV panels on my house provide most of the electricity my house uses, so the load that has to be met by the utility is lower now than before we got PV. U. In 1960, newborns could expect to live just over 71 years. The problem was sitting in open sight, and people have been writing about this statistical power issue forever. Many advances have come from using deep neural networks trained end-to-end in tasks such as object recognition, video games, and board games, achieving performance that equals or even beats humans in some respects. Bush by 3 million votes but still almost won in the Electoral College—he was short just 120,000 votes in Ohio. We used to have both those shake-out-the-powder cans, Comet and that parmesan cheese, in our house when I was growing up. Drum correctly points out that swings are national and of course I agree with that (see, for example, item 9 here ), but of course there were some departures from uniform swing. Recent headlines about a drop in expected American lifespan are misleading. Or, to put it another way, to work on statistical theory and methodology in the context of a deep engagement with a wide range of applications. It used four chains of 1M iterations each. I just noticed another quote from Korb and Stillwell (2002). Most of these articles painted a grim picture of US population health. In order to be detectable today the beacon would have to transmit for at least 90,000 years. P. Pay Greater Attention to Trends in Finer-Grained Vital Statistics Than Overall Life Expectancy. 13. My own journalistic shortcomings aside, I believe science has been ill-served by all this positivity. Posted by Andrew on 17 December 2016, 12:06 pm. And, remember, the problem with peer review is the peers. The 2015 annual drop in lifespan is a mere 1. We know that state votes generally follow the national vote, so if Sanders had lost 1-2 percentage points compared to Clinton, he most likely would have lost 1-2 percentage points in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania too. Identifying the Optimal Integration Time in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. Now, suppose one of them is 10,000 ly away and started signalling 100,000 years ago. Hillary Clinton won the election by 3 million votes. The advantage of post-publication review is that its resources are channeled to the more important cases: papers on important topics (such as Reinhart and Rogoff) or papers that get lots of publicity (such as power pose). The point is counterintuitive (or, at least, counter to the intuitions of Gilovich, Vallone, Tversky, and a few zillion other people, including me before Josh Miller stepped into my office that day a couple years ago) and yet so simple to demonstrate. Understand How We Came This Far and How to Keep Going. However, there is one other thing, which is that Sanders is a member of a religious minority. Laplace, Galton, and Fisher also fall in this category but none of us today can hope to match the scale of their contributions. Maybe the students who say No would just end up getting distracted and making no progress, were they to follow this advice. That said, there could be some selection bias here, that the students who say Yes to new projects are the ones who are more likely to be able to make use of such opportunities. He was not a genius, and this is one of the remarkable things about him. And we now assign a random distribution over 1 million sources to distances between 300 and 100,000 light years away. Applying statistical thinking to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. Ultimately I think the only only only solution here is post-publication review. This finding (which is mathematically obvious, once you see it, and can demonstrated in 5 lines of code) is related to other obvious-but-not-so-well-known examples of discrete data being inherently noisy. My sense is that they are very, very low. We review progress in cognitive science suggesting that truly human-like learning and thinking machines will have to reach beyond current engineering trends in both what they learn, and how they learn it. One can also point to researchers such as James Heckman and Lewis Sheiner who have come from outside to make important contributions to statistics while also doing important work in their own fields. Posted by Andrew on 14 December 2016, 9:30 am. Keep your refrigerator, air, lights, and water heater running. If the range of start-time uncertainty is 10 billion years (from five billion years ago to five billion years from now) and the duration can be from 1000 to 100,000 years. Put all that together and it looked to Gilovich et al. Until we get this fixed, the only thing I can recommend is using straight up static HMC (which is not broken in the Stan releases) or rolling back to Stan 2. This is perhaps the ultimate illustration of the intellectual grip of the significance test over the practice of experimental psychology. It seems to me that a few decades ago there was a lot more talk about extraterrestrial aliens. Posted by Andrew on 19 December 2016, 9:40 am. But the lesson I keep learning over and over again is that I am, if anything, not critical enough. 10 through Stan 2. Here are some examples of sensationalist, alarmist headlines about life expectancy. Despite their biological inspiration and performance achievements, these systems differ from human intelligence in crucial ways. Now they can expect to live just under 79 years. 13 produce biased samples. I am not saying that Steve Fienberg is the George Orwell of statistics, whatever that would mean. There may be an explanation for this short-term drop. Stan 2. P. Fienberg through his efforts changed the world in some small bit, as we all should hope to do. On that view, of course, there are one million signals actually hitting us right now to find. Ultimately posterior intervals are smaller than they should be, but not so much that the inferences are misleading and the shrinkage will be noticeable only if you have more than thousands of effective samples, which is much more that we typically recommend. An important feature of Figure 1 is that the electric load around midnight (far left and far right of the plot) is rather stable from year to year, and from day to day within a month, but the load in the middle of the day has been decreasing every year. Before I get to my question, you need some background. Or when leading news organizations such as NPR hype this sort of work. Notwithstanding all of that, Gilovich et al. Low correlation of predictions and outcomes is no evidence against hot hand. We suggest concrete challenges and promising routes towards these goals that can combine the strengths of recent neural network advances with more structured cognitive models. Fact: Human Lifespan Has Risen Globally for Over 250 Years. You are extremely critical of belief in God, ghosts, heaven, ESP, astrology, homeopathy and Bigfoot. The controversial and share-worthy aspect of the post is not the advice for students to be open to new research projects, but rather some of the specifics. S. That seems to me to possibly be a better description of how our brains operate, and in some deeper level I think it is closer to fitting my view of how we learn from data. Michael Betancourt. That he somehow loses a million votes in liberal California but gains half a million votes in a bunch of swing states in the Midwest. The common theme in all this work is the combination of information from multiple sources, and the challenges involved in taking statistical inferences using these to make decisions in new settings. Andrew, do you think we will ever see a system implemented where you have to submit the replication code with the initial submission of the paper, rather than only upon publication (or not at all).
Or, to put it another way, Donald Trump lost the presidential vote by 3 million votes but managed to win the election because of the vote distribution. Posted by Andrew on 16 December 2016, 9:59 am. Posted by Andrew on 19 December 2016, 10:52 pm. After all, I became a science writer because I love science, and so I have tried not to become too cynical and suspicious of researchers. Before that, though, I have a post that is truly topical and yet will never be urgent. After all of our nagging of people to use samplers that produce unbiased samples, we are mortified to have to announce that Stan versions 2. Posted by Andrew on 20 December 2016, 9:30 am. OK, there are a few things going on here. Anyway, three people emailed me today about a much-publicized science news item that pissed them off. He also wrote, with William Mason, the definitive paper on identification in age-period-cohort models, and he worked on lots of applied problems including census adjustment, disclosure limitation, and statistics in legal settings. Refer a friend or neighbor and earn a finders fee. Figure 1: Electric load (the amount of electricity provided by the electric grid) in the middle of the day has been decreasing year by year in California as alternative energy sources (mostly solar) are added. Hanowell has the full story at his blog. Improve Health and Quality of Life at Advanced Ages Without Overwhelming Social Institutions. Again, our sincere apologies here for messing up so badly. 10 through 2. Stan 2. Suppose they are all sending us a strong, unambiguous signal. That is from each of one million points, between 300 and 100,000 light years away, starting sometime from 5 billion years ago to five billion years from now, a signal lasting between 1000 and 100,000 years is directed at us. 09 (easy with CmdStan, not sure how to do that with other interfaces). Posted by Andrew on 15 December 2016, 9:07 am. Posted by Phil on 15 December 2016, 1:50 pm. I point out gaps between scientific hype and reality. S. life expectancy declines for first time in 20 years (BBC News). Your Cart Contents No products in the cart. Suppose Lisa can perfectly detect when he is hot, and when he is not. My reply: I have no idea but perhaps some of the commenters will have thought about this one. With a generator from 1Stop Generator Shop, Your family will never be left in the dark. Posted by Bob Carpenter on 20 December 2016, 11:12 am. That he somehow loses a million votes in liberal California but gains half a million votes in a bunch of swing states in the Midwest. We were talking about problems with the review process in scientific journals, and a commenter suggested that prepublication review should be more rigorous. And, to go to the next generation, I can for example point to my collaborators John Carlin and David Dunson, both of whom have had deep statistical insights while also contributing to the reform and development of their fields of application. To put it another way: suppose Clinton had run against Scott Walker instead of Donald Trump. That keeps me busy, because, as you know, most peer-reviewed scientific claims are wrong. These are dubious and even harmful claims promoted by major scientists and institutions. Yet between 1960 and 2015, life expectancy in the U. You also attack disbelief in global warming, vaccines and genetically modified food. life expectancy (The Times). Becker for noticing this with a simple bivariate example and for filing the issue with a reproducible example. Matthew Becker, the original poster, diagnosed the problem with fake data simulations, but it required a lot of effort. Contact us for your free generator estimate. In March in California, the peak demand is in the evening, when people are at home with their lights on, watching television and cooking dinner and so on. It led to this result in Stan 2. Although life expectancy dropped by a small amount between 2014 and 2015, the long-term trend shows climbing lifespan. increased by about two months per year on average. My doubt regarding landslide claims is not new. and other nations. Posted by Andrew on 15 December 2016, 10:49 pm. With that setup, I could only assume the correlation would be low. Fienberg is a model of an important way to be a statistician: to be someone deeply engaged with a variety of applied projects while at the same time making fundamental contributions to the core of statistics. The vast majority of scientists and journalists who write about science—not to mention the legions of flaks working at universities, science-oriented corporations and other institutions—present science in a positive light. 13 produce biased samples. Or, at least, this approached worked for me when I was a student and it continues to work for me now, and my favorite students are those who follow this approach. Lionel Trilling famously wrote this about George Orwell. S. Drugs blamed for fall in U. We have an extensive background in commercial and industrial installation. Meanwhile, you neglect what I call hard targets. Hence the relevance of the issue discussed in my post above, regarding attenuation of estimates. Posted by Andrew on 18 December 2016, 9:56 am. As a reviewer I am not going to want to spend the time finding flaws in a submitted paper. like strong evidence for a null, or essentially null, effect. S. So the human lifespan has been increasing over the last few centuries in the U. Reviewing resources are limited (recall that millions of scientific papers are published each year) so it makes sense to devote them to work that people care about. in this article argue that atheoretical machine learning has limitations and they argue in favor of more substantive models to better simulate human-brain-like AI. Before, during and after a hurricane, tips to keep your family and home safe. Funny how it took this long for it to become common knowledge. Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI) has renewed interest in building systems that learn and think like people. Instead of worrying about a problem for which there is no evidence, we should be focusing on meeting the challenges that come with longer human lifespans, and understanding why lifespan differs by demographic characteristics. The bug Matthew Becker reported was for this model. The trouble is that the drop in US life expectancy last year was the smallest among six drops between 1960 and 2015. In the middle of December 2016 there were a lot of headlines about the drop in US life expectancy from 2014 to 2015. For he communicates to us the sense that what he has done any one of us could do. Paul Alper points us to this transcribed lecture by John Horgan. What We Should Be Talking About Instead of Falling Life Expectancy. Suppose there are 1 million civilizations in the Galaxy. 2016. Rather, controversy came from his recommendations of where skeptics should aim their fire. These ideas of integration and partial pooling are central to Bayesian data analysis, and so it makes sense that Fienberg made use of Bayesian methods throughout his career, and that he was a strong presence in the Carnegie Mellon statistics department, which has been one of the important foci of Bayesian research and education during the past few decades. Posted by Andrew on 14 December 2016, 9:57 pm. What aspect of the target article or book you would anticipate commenting on. And I have a couple literary ideas I wanted to share. So, here are various scientific or pseudo-scientific beliefs that get criticized. The media is abuzz about a small drop in life expectancy in 2015. I recently heard that Yuti Milner has donated 100 millions dollars to 10-year search for extraterrestrial intelligence. Science journalist recommends going easy on Bigfoot, says you should bash of mammograms instead. Note that the y-axis does not start at zero. There still could have been a recent slowdown or reversal, right. arXiv. In contrast, with regular journal submission, every paper gets reviewed, and it would be a huge waste of effort for all these papers to be carefully scrutinized. Orwell, by reason of the quality that permits us to say of him that he was a virtuous man, is a figure in our lives.
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